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Saturday, April 30, 2011

Thabo Mbeki Is Not Naive

Thabo Mbeki, former president of South Africa, has recently written a piece for FP in which he came down on the side of Gbagbo in the Ivorian crisis. He worries about the suffering of Gbagbo and his wife since their arrests, far more than he worries about the extended humiliation which Ivorians have undergone since the dictatorship of Boigny to the recent Gbagbo. In the piece, Mbeki claims that two casualties resulted from the Ivorian crisis -  a weakened African Union and a hypocritical United Nations. As for the role of the UN, Mbeki laments:
"The United Nations is yet another casualty. It has severely undermined its acceptability as a neutral force in the resolution of internal conflicts, such as the one in Côte d'Ivoire. It will now be difficult for the United Nations to convince Africa and the rest of the developing world that it is not a mere instrument in the hands of the world's major powers. This has confirmed the urgency of the need to restructure the organisation, based on the view that as presently structured the United Nations has no ability to act as a truly democratic representative of its member states."
I know Mbeki understands that international politics, just like national politics, is not based on goodwill but on the capacity to wield power. The powerless can always murmur against the bad treatment they are receiving from the powerful but unless the powerless manage to become powerful, their complaints will amount to nothing. Mbeki knows this very well because he was part of the movement in South Africa that enabled black people to come to power in that country. Black South Africans did not only complain about their marginalization, hoping that this would prick the conscience of the white minority government and cause it to change its mind. Black South Africans fought their way into power. We are seeing a similar thing in North Africa where Tunisians and Egyptians who have been marginalized for so long are fighting their way into power. This is also happening in Libya.
As in national politics, so too in international politics. In international politics, just as in national politics, the weak are  marginalized. If the United Nations can flaunt the rule of law in Africa it is because, as Mbeki himself rightly saw, the continent does not have what it takes to wield international power. Mbeki rightly notes the weakness of the AU. The AU has been impotent in the face of massive crises like those in Ivory Coast and Libya. It was impotent when it came to Tunisia and Egypt. The major powers who have been wielding their wills in Africa do so because they are strong not because they respect rule of law. Mbeki knows this. That is why Mr. Mbeki would do well to urge African leaders to develop strong economies that would lead to their being strong. Mbeki is a master of rhetoric (as evidenced in the piece) but rhetorical flourish does not do much good when it comes to power politics. International politics, as Mbeki well knows, is not based so much on who is right as on who is strong. It is a waste of time to be blaming the United Nations or France for disrespecting the rule of law in Africa - African leaders themselves routinely do this even though Mbeki hardly raises his voice against them. It is only because his friends, Gbagbo and his wife, are now suffering the consequence of weakness that he is complaining. It is even telling that Mbeki never mentioned that the biggest casualty in this debacle is the Ivorian people themselves. But he mentions the sufferings of Gbagbo and his wife twice! I wonder who Gbagbo is speaking for: for the people of Ivory Coast or for his friends Gbagbo and his wife! It is very easy for very bright politicians to lose their focus. But I know Mbeki is not naive.

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