A Catch-22 in Ivory Coast

The crisis that followed the troubled presidential elections in Ivory Coast has led to an international political dilemma that may not bode well for the country whichever way this crisis is solved. If the incumbent president, Laurent Gbagbo, stands his ground and weathers the storms (the threat of being forcefully removed from power, etc.) he will surely be a dictator and the country will remain almost ungovernable. The fact that he has the support of the army of the country and most people in the south may lead him to be a president of the army and the population that supports him. This will narrow his constituency so much (his international support does not seem clear right now) because the country will remain isolated. This isolation may serve as disincentive to investment in the country and further drive down its economic growth/development prospects. In short, if Gbagbo remains in power, Ivory Coast is going down with him.

However, with the support of the international community, if Alassane Ouattara gains power, he may also be a president of his northern constituency, always being wary of an army that currently does not support him. Well, he may solve the army problem by purging it but this will not remove the threats. Ouattara will always be insecure in power unless something drastic happens to make the army of the country be for him. Further, the fact that his support base is the international community rather than the Ivorian people will make him to be like most African leaders who have the international community, rather than their people, as their base. This again will not bode well for the Ivorians who would be ruled by a person who cares less about their well being than pleasing his international constituencies.

As it now stands, there is going to be no beautiful outcome in Ivory Coast. Gbagbo already spoiled the future of the country by deciding to steal the election. Even if he tells his supporters to now support Ouattara for the good of the country, a move which currently appears to be unlikely, this will be only a lip service. There is now so much bad blood among the supporters of both candidates that it is difficult to see how a future of peace and prosperity can be carved out of the current mess. Whether one is for Gbagbo or Ouattara what needs to be the somber realization is that this coming new year hardly brings good news for Ivory Coast. The politicians have already muddied the future of the country so bad that it is difficult to picture a flourishing scenario for the people. In all this, the people, as usual, are the losers. It is a somber conclusion, but sadly true.